Hypothetical future

[steorran_worulde]

mc776's comments on this post have drawn my attention to the fact that the hypothetical-future scenario it's basically based on is actually a science fiction setting. I guess I hadn't really thought of it that way, because I hadn't really thought of it as something-for-stories-to-be-based-on; I'd just thought of it as a what-if-the-future-turned-out-this-way? Which really doesn't sound all that different when I put it that way...

It's basically a scenario where some kind of infrastructure collapse has happened - probably at least in part by fossil fuels becoming inaccessible, or at least prohibitively expensive, although the detaiils of the cause are not worked out. As a result of infrastructure collapse, people are forced to rely largely on things produced locally.

I've thought about it basically on two levels: more on the level of basic logistics, and less on the level of societal structure and impacts.

Basic logistics are things like:
Okay, so we have to rely on things produced locally. And we probably have to do a lot of stuff ourselves. What resources could we use? For food, what could we grow or harvest? How much land would be needed to support one family? How would we produce fibre and make clothing? What about tools? What kinds of transportation might we have? How long would it take to get from one place to another using those kinds of transportation? Basically for all of this, my thought has been pretty much limited to southwestern BC - i.e., "home" for me. Some about the Sunshine Coast, and some about Vancouver Island, because part of my working out these ideas took place with Heather in Metchosin.

Societal structure thoughts go something like:
Okay. We have a lack of resources. Who has resources, who has power? It seems to me that there are two obvious kinds of resources: land, and skills. There's going to be a shortage of land for farming to feed people, and people who have control of land have control of resources, and therefore power. On the other hand, people who have control of land may not have the skills to work it effectively; if they have large amounts of land, they almost certainly won't have the labour force to work it effectively. They also may not have the skills to make other necessary things like buildings and tools and clothing. Based on this, I can imagine a sort of system of patron/dependents springing up, especially where there are large landholders. Farmers with agricultural skills are dependent on patrons for access to land; however, patrons also depend on their tenants for food. In addition, patrons may have other kinds of dependents who produce other things. Skilled tenants (such as farmers) on large estates may in turn have unskilled labourer dependants. People with small tracts of land and without farming skills might have a simplified patron/dependant relationship, possibly even with landholder and skilled landworker living together quite closely.

I imagine in some of these relationships, the skilled members would worry about their skills being acquired by too many people, thus potentially putting them out of a job.

I also imagine that *owning* land would not necessarily guarantee control of land; if land is a scarce resource, people will try to make use of it if they can, even if it's not theirs; this could lead to squabbles over land, and large landholders having some sort of force to maintain control over their land (and small landholders at least having, say, a dog, or someone keeping watch at night, to make sure no one steals food). I can also imagine some patron/tenant relationships arising from people starting to grow stuff on land that doesn't belong to them, landowner coming along and saying "Hey, that's my land! So, technically anything you grow on it is mine too. And I can kick you off if I want to. But, I'll let you keep growing stuff if you give me X% of the produce."